January 17th 2012

Report backs government-funded older people's advice service

A government-funded information and advice service helping older people to prepare for later life is proving a much-needed resource as Britain becomes an increasingly top-heavy society, a new report says.

The claims are made by the authors of a new study evaluating FirstStop, a free advice service for older citizens which helps them to plan for the future by supporting them on issues such as housing and care.

Researchers from the Centre for Housing and Planning Research, at the University of Cambridge, argue that resources of this type will become increasingly important as Britain’s older population grows. Current estimates suggest that by 2025, more than one third of the UK’s population will be over 55.

While the report’s immediate concern is with welfare, it also stresses that a cultural shift is needed so that people think about the demands of old age and plan ahead accordingly. It adds that this will have a significant impact on the public purse.

Even the cost of treating an elderly person who has had a serious fall at home can be up to £30,000 a year. Advice services which, for example, help people to modify their home first to cope with increasing frailty, are of value not just to the individual, but to the taxpayer, the study suggests.

Dr Gemma Burgess, who led the research, said: “Most people want to stay in their own home as they age, but often through lack of support or preparation become unable to do so. This can mean older people move into residential homes, which is not only a move they do not want to make, but also one that is hugely costly to the taxpayer.”

“With better information and advice about how to deal with the housing, care and financial challenges of ageing from a service like FirstStop, people are able to remain independent in their own homes or move to housing that really suits them, not only saving the taxpayer money but, more importantly, improving the quality of life for older people.”

To date, there has been no consensus on the difficult issue of how to deal with the pending housing and care crisis that the country will face as Britain’s population gets older. Housing has often been left out of the mix. Over the last 12 months, however, there has been a growing public debate about how to meet the challenges of an ageing population beyond traditional concerns about pensions. In particular, the publication of Dilnot’s Commission on the Funding of Care and Support highlighted concerns around having to sell family homes to pay for care in later life.

Against that backdrop, the Cambridge study strongly endorses the FirstStop service, arguing that this model of information and advice provision is vital if the country is going to withstand the emotional and financial burdens of a top-heavy demographic. Academics from the Centre for Housing and Planning Research are involved in an ongoing project which is analysing and informing the service’s development.

FirstStop users can call a Freephone number, or visit a website, to obtain independent and impartial support on housing care options, their rights and financial support. Face-to-face advice is also available. It is a fairly new service but growing; 90,000 people visited its website in 2010/11.

Critically, the service networks relevant organisations both locally and nationally. The result is a “one stop shop” for users which enables older people, their families, or their carers to cut through the bureaucracy of multiple services.

The latest study involved a follow-up survey with service users which found that FirstStop is helping people prepare for old age efficiently and achieves a high level of customer satisfaction.

It also suggests such information services have a positive impact on the “hidden”, often emotional consequences of having to deal with the effects of growing older. Users said that they felt reassured and able to make better-informed choices about their future. The anxiety and stress of people who used the service, especially when it concerned big decisions like moving into care, was reduced and their sense of well-being improved.

A centralised, integrated advice service was found to have multiple benefits from a processual point of view as well. The study points out that users’ details could be recorded for use in subsequent calls, enabling their concerns to be dealt with more efficiently. The integration of different organisations supporting older people also meant that these services were able to share information, encouraging more strategic, joined-up thinking.

The report concludes that the FirstStop national information and advice service for the elderly is key to instilling a culture of preparation, prevention and self-help across the UK to spare many people the worst costs of old age. It can also give people a clear and accessible means of getting support when they do hit a crisis.

Welcoming the study, Housing Minister Grant Shapps said: “This independent evaluation clearly demonstrates the value of the type of specialised housing and care advice provided by FirstStop, and the benefits to individuals and society of this advice being more widely available throughout the country at a local and national level. The Government is committed to enabling people to make an informed choice about their housing and care in later life. We are investing in the FirstStop information and advice service as detailed in the new Housing Strategy.”

"With better information and advice about how to deal with the housing, care and financial challenges of ageing, people are able to remain independent in their own homes or move to housing that really suits them."
–Dr Gemma Burgess

New Who Owns the City report shows foreign ownership of City of London offices passes 50%

The Who Owns the City? research report, completed by a Land Economy team (Professor Colin Lizieri, Jan Reinert and Professor Andrew Baum) and sponsored by Development Securities plc shows that 52% of office space in the City of London is now foreign-owned. The report examines changes in office ownership from 1973 to 2011, revealing that ownership has progressively become more international and more financially focussed.. Despite the sharp fall in capital values in the aftermath of the global financial crisis, London remains the pre-eminent target market for global property investors. The City's scale, liquidity and transparency encourage "safe haven" investment. The changes in ownership patterns reflect the status of the City as the major European international financial centre, but bring risks to London. The concentration of ownership makes the City vulnerable to shocks in global capital markets and contagion effects from financial crises.

The Who Owns the City? research report

MPhil Student Prizes 2010-2011

The Department is pleased to announce the award of the following MPhil prizes for 2010-2011:

We would like to thank the Cambridge University Land Society (CULS), the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS), the Oxford University Press (OUP) and the Royal Town Planning Institute (RTPI) for their sponsorship. Many congratulations to all our Prizewinners!

Tripos Student Prizes 2010-2011

The Department is pleased to announce the award of the following Tripos prizes for 2010-2011:

We would like to thank the Estate Management Development Fund (EMDF), Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS), Sweet and Maxwell, Routledge and the Cambridge University Land Society (CULS) for their sponsorship.

Many congratulations to all our Prizewinners!

New books by Professor Philip Arestis

Microeconomics, Macroeconomics and Economic Policy are at the core of research and study in economics. The essays in this volume have been specifically commissioned and brought together to celebrate the work of Malcolm Sawyer, who has made substantial contributions in these areas. The chapters explore important questions including 'Is There a Role for Active Fiscal Policies?' and 'Regulating Wall Street' as well as offering critical appraisals and original discussions of these three key areas of economic thought.

The International Papers in Political Economy (IPPE) series explores the potential of New Economics as Mainstream Economics. This seventh volume examines the need for and the development of new economics, in light of the 'great recession' of 2007 and subsequently. The volume deals with both a new theoretical framework and the application of new economics to a number of current issues and economic problems that test the capability of this approach. It is essential reading for all postgraduates and scholars looking for expert discussion and debate of the issues surrounding the case for a new economics.

Both books are published by Palgrave Macmillian

Cambridge Centre for Housing and Planning Research study highlighted in Sunday's Observer identifies consequences of market-pegged social rents for larger families on low incomes.

Families 'will be priced out of social housing by plans for higher rents'. Proposed rent rises will be unaffordable across much of urban England, not just London, study warns. Read more http://www.guardian.co.uk/society/2011/aug/21/families-priced-out-social-housing

New Appointments in Land Economy

Dr Franz Fuerst

We are delighted to announce the appointment of Dr Franz Fuerst to a Readership in Real Estate and Housing Finance.  Franz is currently Reader in Real Estate Economics at the Henley Business School at the University of Reading and a visiting professor at the Centre for Climate Change and Real Estate in the International Real Estate Business School at Regensburg University.  He has previously been a Senior Consultant at Atisreal -BNP Paribas Real Estate, Lecturer at the University of Technology Berlin and Research Associate at City University New York.  Other previous appointments include Research Fellow at the Institute of Spatial Planning at the University of Dortmund and Visiting Scholar at York University in Toronto.  Franz’s research interests are primarily in ‘green’ real estate economics, financial analysis of sustainable investment, portfolio and risk management, forecasting of commercial real estate markets and spatial urban and regional development. 

Franz’s research connects in a variety of ways across the Department of Land Economy.  He will take up his post on 1 September and we look forward to welcoming him to the Department then.

Mellon Fellowships

The Department has also made appointments to two new two-year postdoctoral fellowships funded under a University of Cambridge programme by the Mellon Foundation

Dr Barbara Havel has been appointed to the Mellon Postdoctoral Fellowship in Climate change, property and sustainability.  This post is funded under a University cross-Schools programme and is a joint appointment with the Department of Architecture.  Barbara has qualifications in both urban planning and architecture from Warsaw University.  She completed her PhD at Helsinki University of Technology on property rights regimes in land development and is currently undertaking research and teaching at Aalto University in Finland.  Aside from her university experience, Barbara has worked in real estate consulting and property development in Poland.  Barbara will undertake research and contribute to teaching on sustainable real estate and land development.  She takes up the appointment on the 1st August 2011.

Dr Sophie Chapman has been appointed to the Mellon Postdoctoral Fellowship in Policy innovations for environmental markets.  Sophie has degrees in Arts and Law from the University of Melbourne, masters degrees in Law and International Studies and has recently completed a PhD on climate change and energy governance in the Department of Politics and International Studies here in Cambridge.  Sophie has previously practiced as a lawyer in Australia and undertaken university teaching both in Cambridge and in Australia.  She has recently co-authored a report on Forest Carbon: Legal rights and investment risks.  Sophie will undertake research and will contribute to teaching on aspects of environmental policy and climate change. She also takes up the appointment on 1 August 2011.

EPSRC Studentship

One PhD studentship is available for a January 2012 start, working in collaboration with a major research programme on the Long Term Dynamics of Interdependent Infrastructure Systems. For further information, see:http://www.landecon.cam.ac.uk/news/pdf/IRTC-EPSRC2011.pdf.

The G20 recovery and beyond

Professor Philip Arestis has joined an international group of leading economics brought together by Professors Joseph Stiglitz and Jean-Paul Fitousi to examine ways in which the system of global economic governance might be improved and to make recommendations to Nicholas Sarkozy, the President of the French Republic, on the agenda for the G20 group of nations.

For further information and a link to the report, see:
http://www.landecon.cam.ac.uk/research/reuag/ccepp/cceppnews.html

Aareal Award Winner in Real Estate Finance

Vanessa Kozik won 1st place in the category Bachelor/Master/Diploma Thesis with her MPhil dissertation 'Forecast Bias in analysts earnings estimates of US REITs'. A link to one of the press releases is http://www.aareal-award.com/en/history/2011/

New books by Philip Arestis

Four new books by Philip Arestis detailed below:

For further information on any of these books please see: the Palgrave Macmillan website

Following the success of the first edition in predicting that as a result of the excessive liquidity at the time, the internet bubble would be transformed into a housing bubble, which would burst once long-term interest rates turned below short-term interest rates, which it did, the second edition has been built on similar grounds. It thereby builds systematically an appropriate framework to explain and analyze the economics of depression or the asset and debt deflation process that has been relevant in the last three cycles. It shows that the internet, housing and commodities bubbles are interconnected. Explaining the origins of the recent credit crisis, this volume works out the implications for the US economy and financial markets, while suggesting how policy should be formulated to avoid and deflect future bubbles.

This book is indispensable reading for all interested in macroeconomics, business cycle analysis, financial crises, credit crises, financial markets, monetary policy and the increasing role of the housing market in macroeconomics

The International Papers in Political Economy (IPPE) series explores the latest developments in political economy. This sixth volume focuses on the theme of the need for and the development of Keynesian economic policies for the 21st century. The volume deals with financial systems and economic development and asks whether we are all Keynesians now. Keynesian growth theory in the 21st century along with economic policies thought to emerge from the theoretical framework that underpins it – always a Keynesian one but adapted to the realities of the 21st century – are also examined. Essays in this volume also explore the nature and consequences of financialisation as perceived by Keynesians, the conceptualisation of money and the implications for economic policy of the current financial crisis, and the role of banks and the case for public banks.

This book offers detailed analysis and informed comment on the type of economic policies that are relevant for the 21st century in the aftermath of the financial crisis and global recession. It is essential reading for all postgraduates and scholars looking for expert discussion and debate of the issues surrounding economic policy issues.

The 2008 financial crisis poses three fundamental questions for economists and policy makers; understanding the origins of the crisis, understanding the consequences of this crisis for the world economy, and finally understanding why the 2008 financial crisis is not as serious as the 1929 crisis. The prevailing view is that the 2008 financial crisis was solely the result of inadequate financial regulation together with a very loose monetary policy conducted by central banks, especially the Fed. It is believed that this crisis is a temporary detour in the normal course of the events, so that in the near future capitalist economies will resume the high growth path observed before the crisis. In terms of the third question, there is a widespread view that the fundamental reason that explains the avoidance of the harmful experiences of 1929 was the fiscal and monetary policy expansions in developed countries. No important role is assigned to developing countries in terms of the effects of the financial crisis.

This book challenges the prevailing orthodoxy surrounding the origins and the consequences of the 2008 financial crisis. The book demonstrates that measures in addition to a profound change in the financial regulation are required if a new financial crisis is to be avoided in the future, measures include: a change in the conduct of economic policy; a reform of the national and international monetary systems; and a radical change in the pattern of income distribution.

This book is essential reading for all interested in macroeconomics, monetary policy, development economics and the global impact of the financial crisis.

The 2008 financial crisis hit the heart of capitalism, but the effects were much weaker in the 'periphery' of the capitalist system than in its center. This book provides a solution to this paradox. The analysis presented here shows that current account surpluses and accumulation of foreign reserves are important for developing countries because they allow them to conduct anti-cyclical policies in the face of a financial crisis in developed countries. Stabilization of output is important for robust growth in the long term due to its effects over capitalist animal spirits. Developed countries should never pursue a growth strategy based merely on accumulation of 'foreign savings'.

This book presents an extensive and in-depth analysis of the crisis as it influenced both developed and developing countries. It is shown that the impact of this crisis is far from being homogenous across the developed and developing world. The most intriguing aspect of it is the fact that it affected less those economies responsible for the generation of the 'global savings glut', and more those economies that are more dependent on foreign capital inflows. In this aspect, the book also addresses the question of why this crisis has been rather limited in magnitude and of such relatively short duration. It is also shown that financial liberalization alone cannot fully explain the crisis. It is necessary to take a good look on the size of the financial sector all over the world and the redistributive impact related to it. Thus, one of the main lessons that can be learned by this volume is a profound need to implement policies that can guarantee financial stability.

This book is essential reading for all interested in economic growth, macroeconomics, and development economics.

IPD Prizewinners at ERES2010

Dr Jamie Alcock (Department of Land Economy), Eva Steiner and Kelvin Jui Keng Tan won the IPD Prize at ERES2010 in June for their paper "On the capital structure of real estate firms". 

Miss Eva Steiner, contributed to this project whilst an analyst with Lasalle Investment Management, but has since comenced her PhD studies in the DLE.  Her current topic is asymmetric dependence in real estate, and she is supervised by Dr Jamie Alcock, and Mr Kelvin Jui Keng Tan, who is a Lecturer in Finance at the UQ Business School at the University of Queensland.

This prize will be presented to the authors at the ERES2011 conference in Eindhoven, The Netherlands.

A M Parker prize awarded by the Institute of Actuaries Australia

Dr Jamie Alcock (Dept of Land Economy) and Tony Hatherley (a correlation trader at CitiGroup) have been awarded the A M Parker prize from the Institute of Actuaries Australia for their paper.

A M Parker Prize is awarded by the Institute of Actuaries, Australia for the most outstanding paper to be published in the Australian Actuarial Journal.  This was awarded for the paper, entitled "Asymmetric dependence between domestic equity indices and its effect on portfolio construction", The Australian Actuarial Journal, 15(1), 143—180.  In this article, a new measure of asymmetric dependence is used to illustrate that the correlation between large, liquid, domestic indices is asymmetric and can influence the performance of investment portfolios comprised of investment in indices.  Our empirical evidence is supportive of the claim that asymmetric dependence is a non-diversifiable risk that, if ignored, results in portfolio managers considerably understating their true risk position and overstating their expected return outcomes.

Authors:
Dr Jamie Alcock, and
Dr Anthony Hatherley, who contributed to this project whilst a post-doctoral researcher at the UQ Business School at The University of Queensland.  He is now a correlation trader with Citigroup.

This prize will be awarded at the Institute's Biennial Convention in Sydney, Australia in April 2011.

Professor Arestis argues that raising interest rates is a poor tool to fight inflations

In a letter to the Financial Times, published on Wednesday 2 February, Professor Philip Arestis, who is a Senior Departmental Fellow in the Department of Land Economy and Professor Malcolm Sawyer from the University of Leeds argue that raising interests rates has no role in bringing down inflation.  The current pressures on inflation are coming from higher world oil and food prices, value added tax and other tax increases and delayed effects of depreciated exchange  rate.  The only effect of raising interest rates would be to further depress demand, with the prospect of no effect on the rate of inflation.
The letter can be read in full at: http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/ada24894-2e59-11e0-8733-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1DU0QRiQc
(accessible by free registration with the FT)