'Complexity economics for sustainability' Seminar Series
3-4 December 2009 in Maddingley Hall
The event will begin with a lecture at 5.30 p.m. on Thursday 3 December by Prof. Tim Jackson (University of Surrey and Sustainable Development Commission) on his recent report (and forthcoming book) on 'Prosperity without growth' followed by drinks and dinner for those attending the seminar. The seminar continues the following day 9.00 am - 4.00 pm on Friday 4 December.
If you would like to attend the lecture and seminar, could you please register with Mairéad Curran mc649@cam.ac.uk making clear whether you will need overnight accommodation. The numbers for the seminar will be limited, so we would ask people to make a firm commitment if they would like to participate.
The lecture, seminar, dinner and overnight accommodation are available at no cost to all seminar participants (though we can only pay travel costs for invited speakers). All talks and accommodation will be at Madingley Hall, Madingley, Cambridge CB23 8AQ, located around 3 miles from Cambridge city centre.
Contacts:
Seminar organisation: Dr Tim Foxon, University of Leeds, t.j.foxon@leeds.ac.uk
Registration: Mairéad Curran, University of Cambridge, mc649@cam.ac.uk
Land Economy Seminar Series
16:00- 17:00 28 October 2009 in Mill Lane Room 1
Dr Alice Bows of the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research
and University of Manchester.
Climate change & carbon budgets: the
contribution of international transport
emissions.
For global mean temperatures to remain below the 2ºC threshold, annual emission reductions of an unprecedented scale are required over the coming decades. Yet, even within industrialising nations, two sectors in particular, international aviation and shipping, anticipate a medium-term continuation of emissions growth. At the scale of analysis, it is unimportant which sectors reduce their emissions, as long as the relevant carbon budget is not exceeded. In this regard, those sectors with the lowest abatement costs are likely to compensate for sectors with significant technological and socio-economic barriers to emission reduction. Yet the scale of growth anticipated within aviation and shipping, without technological step changes in the short-term, places significant additional pressure on other sectors to mitigate. Given the overarching climate change challenge, this paper explores the available space for growth for international aviation and shipping given the likely managerial and technological efficiency and carbon intensity improvements to international transport and anticipated growth rates. The results illustrate the necessity for urgent and effective policies on emission mitigation for international aviation and shipping, if the 2ºC target is to remain an achievable goal.
Terry Barker in Brussels
26 October 2009
Dr Terry Barker is leading an expert seminar (with Ben Gardiner from Cambridge Econometrics) in Brussels on EU Cohesion Policy and Climate Change, with other leading EU, World Bank and Regional Studies Association representatives as well as those from DG Regio.
Green Shoots or False Dawn? prospects for a global and UK economic recovery
Tuesday 16 June 2009, Royal Geographical Society,
1 Kensington Gore, London, SW7 2AR
Two years on from the Credit Crunch, and a year into the worst recession since the war, is the economy touching bottom yet? Have stock market investors spotted green shoots, heralding an improvement in the real economy? Or is this a false dawn, with fundamental problems yet to be addressed? Should we be gearing ourselves up for a sharp recovery, or should we be preparing for at best weak growth for some time yet?
This half-day conference aims to develop a better understanding of the nature of the global and UK recession and the potential for recovery, drawing out the implications for the UK's sectors and places. The conference will go beyond a simple presentation of point forecasts and see what can be learned from scenarios carried out with our global and UK multi-sectoral economic models. The two sessions will allow ample time for questions and discussion.
Speakers:
- Terry Barker, Chairman of Cambridge Econometrics and Director of the Cambridge Centre for Climate Change Mitigation Research in the University of Cambridge
- Hector Pollitt, Manager of International Modelling at Cambridge Econometrics.
- Rachel Beaven, Director of Cambridge Econometrics, with responsibility for UK economic forecasts
- Richard Lewney, Managing Director of Cambridge Econometrics
Discussant:
- Bob Thompson, Director, RETRI
More information available, including conference programme, on the CE website.
Cambridge Centre for Climate Change Mitigation Research Seminar Series 2009
- The Effect of Energy Prices on Operation and Investment in OECD Countries: Evidence from the Vintage Capital Model
Dr Karsten Neuhoff & Dr Jevgenijs Steinbuks. Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge
Friday 29 May 2009, 14:30-15:30 - A Green New Deal: Climate Change Mitigation as an Economic Stimulus
Dr Alex Bowen, Principal Research Fellow, Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, London School of Economics
Friday 5th June, 12:30-13.30.
For more information on these talks contact us.
IR3S/Tyndall Centre Joint Symposium
Pathway toward low carbon society and global sustainability
19-21 May 2009
The Japanese Integrated Research System for Sustainability Science (IR3S) at the University of Tokyo and the UK’s Tyndall Centre for Climate Change announced a three day joint symposium held at University of East Anglia in Norwich. The purpose of the symposium was to share interdisciplinary learning and knowledge about transitioning to a low carbon society, with specific focus on dialogue between i) Japanese and UK researchers, and ii) between established faculty and junior researchers and students. Attending this syposium was several members of 4CMR including Dr Terry Barker. More information is available here.
On the rebound: could energy efficiency improvements backfire?
14 May 2009
Cambridge Energy Forum and The Cambridge Centre for Climate Change Mitigation Research (4CMR), University of Cambridge are organised an afternoon joint-seminar. The event described: a) what the rebound effect is b) how it manifests itself c) what we can do about it.
Speakers, who primed the debate, included:
- Dr Terry Barker, Director of 4CMR
- Dr Philip Sargent, Cambridge Energy Forum
- Mr Steven Sorrell, University of Sussex
- Mr Blake Alcott, an independent researcher
- Prof Roger Kemp, Lancaster Universit
Presentations:
The rebound effect: Mechanisms, evidence and implications
Steve Sorrell, Sussex Energy Group
The Global Macroeconomic Rebound Effect of Energy Efficiency Policies: an analysis 2012-2030 using E3MG
Dr Terry Barker, Cambridge Centre for Climate Change Mitigation Research
Responses to increased energy efficiency in the real world
Prof Roger Kemp, Lancaster University
The Rebound Effect: introduction and historical perspective
Blake Alcott, Independent Researcher
Click here for a list of publications related to "the rebound effect".
Modelling the UK Transport System for Climate Change Policy Analysis, BERR Conference Centre
18 March 2009
This workshop, hosted by the Department of Energy and Climate Change, examined andcompared different approaches to modelling the UK transport system, in the context of energy use and climate change mitigation.
A report on the day is being prepared and will be available here shortly.
International Scientific Congress on Climate Change in Copenhagen
10-12 March 2009
Members of 4CMR presented seven posters and three oral papers at the Climate Congress in Copenhagen. These research results will be published in the forthcoming conference proceedings. During the three-day conference, we also convened a workshop on mitigation research, in association with The Royal Society, and held an open meeting about decarbonising international transport. On Thursday March 12, 4CMR’s Director Terry Barker gave a press conference about the potential macroeconomic benefits of climate change mitigation.
Presentations from the 4CMR/Royal Society workshop: Mitigation of climate change: filling the knowledge gaps revealed by the Fourth Assessment Report.
Terry Barker, Director, 4CMR, University of Cambridge, UK
Frans Berkhout, Director, Institute for Environmental Studies, VU University, Amsterdam
Rik Leemans, Professor of Environmental Systems Analysis, Wageningen University
Modelling, forecasting & resolving the global recession, Cambridge
27-28 January 2009
An international workshop discussed forecasts of the global economy to 2020. Modelling suggests the recession will be felt globally, at least until 2011.
Selected presentations:
E3MG: Assessing the crisis with a sectoral econometric model
H. Pollitt and U. Chewpreecha, Cambridge Econometrics
Financial crisis and Dutch climate policy
T. Manders, Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
The global economic downturn and the potential of green investment: results from GINFORS
C. Lutz and B. Meyer, Institute of Economic Structures Research, Germany
World Economic Dynamics and Technological Change: On Projecting Economic Growth
S. S. Scrieciu, Cambridge Centre for Climate Change Mitigation Research
Air Transport Emissions Trading Workshop
11 December 2008
A one day workshop organised by 4CMR and the Omega partnership was held at the Department for Transport in London. More than 50 delegates attended, including representatives from the UK Government and the European Commission, the aviation industry, academic research and environmental NGOs. Annela Anger of 4CMR, and Peter Allen of Cranfield University, launched preliminary results of their research into the economic and environmental impacts of introducing aviation into the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme.
Download the presentations and find more information here.
Reports from the 11th December 2008 Air Transport Emissions Trading Workshop are available here:
Final report
Big Crunch, Big Bang conference
21 November 2008
Speaking at the Big Crunch, Big Bang conference in Cambridge on Friday 21 November, 4CMR’s Director Terry Barker put forward a seven-point plan for solving the current crisis and re-booting the financial system.
Unless radical action is taken, Barker predicts that the financial crisis will continue to deepen and develop into a twenty-first century Greater Depression. He recommends bankrupting the bad banks, setting near-zero interest rates, fixing key exchange rates and global prices temporarily and isolating the toxic debt. These actions should be followed by investment programmes for decarbonising the global economy and international institutional reform.
"This is an ideal time for massive investment in decarbonising the global economy," said Barker.
Find more information about the conference, including speaker papers, podcasts and slides, at http://www.neweconomicthinking.org/prog.htm
4CMR awarded £2.5 million
13 October 2008
4CMR is delighted to announce receipt of a substantial grant from the Three Guineas Trust, a Sainsbury Family Charitable Trust, to continue our work on how best to rapidly decarbonise the global economy.
The grant will provide almost £2.5 million over three years from 2008-2011. Using this money, 4CMR will put together a team of specialists to further develop our Energy-Environment-Economy (E3) Model at the global level (E3MG).
The new team will fit, extend and validate the model using real world data on the global E3 system, including oil prices, greenhouse gas emissions and fiscal and monetary policy instruments for the 25 years from 1972–2005. We aim to fulfil the design specification of the model, to provide a dynamic simulation of the global economic and energy systems and reliably analyse the costs and benefits of different climate change policies.
“The world’s energy-economy system needs a wholesale switch to low carbon technologies and lifestyles,” says 4CMR Director, Terry Barker. “The crucial question is how fast can this be done, while maintaining and even accelerating economic development, and ensuring that the most vulnerable in society are protected?”
ADAM week
22-26 September 2008
The annual ADAM (Adaptation And Mitigation) week was held in Poznan, Poland and was attended by Terry Barker, Serban Scrieciu, Svetlana Tashchilova and Mairéad Curran. Researchers from all over Europe came to discuss book chapters and report progress. As part of the ADAM week there was a tour of some surrounding countryside and a falcon display.
Entrepreneurship for a Zero Carbon Society
22-24 September 2008
Entrepreneurship for a Zero Carbon Society, the first international Cambridge Climate Summit. The conference, organised by staff at 4CMR and the Cambridge Judge Business School, was a huge success. Presentations and the delegate list are now available at http://www.cambridgeclimate.com
Here is a taste of the press coverage:
The Guardian
"Crisis must be turned to green benefit, scientist says" 23 September 2008
Governments need to show the same boldness to intervene in the markets to kickstart a move to a low-carbon economy as they did when they helped the banks stave off financial crisis last week, a leading academic has demanded. "Both require strong regulation for efficient economic outcomes," said Terry Barker, a climate change expert at Cambridge University, who fears the Lehman Brothers and HBOS problems foreshadow a global economic downturn……There were marked similarities between the lack of transparency and action on complex lending risks that had wreaked havoc in the banking community and the kinds of dangers being stored up by corporate and political inaction over global warming, said Barker, the director of the centre for climate change mitigation research at Cambridge. "Both threaten the economy with catastrophic collapse," added the economist, who has worked with the UN's Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change, and was speaking with Watson at the Entrepreneurship for a Zero Carbon Society conference at Cambridge University…
Tyndall Assembly
10-12 September 2008
This year's Tyndall Annual Assembly was at the UEA, Norwich. The Assembly brought together Tyndall researchers from all over the UK and included a trip to the Norfolk coastline to view the affects of erosion and areas of flood risk around Sea Palling.
Global warming conference
23 July 2008
Terry Barker gave the first Keynote speech to the First Global Conference on Global Warming held in Istanbul, July 6 to 10, 2008. His talk was on "Global and Sectoral Mitigation Potentials to 2030 and the Carbon Price: towards decarbonising the global economy". The Conference was opened by Prof. Veysel Eroglu, Minister of Environment and Forestry and Dr. Kadir Topbas, Mayor of Istanbul and was attended by several hundred participants from many countries. A new journal, the International Journal on Global Warming, is being launched with a multidisciplinary approach, and an emphasis of the engineering aspects of climate policy.
UKERC annual assembly
25-27 June 2008
4CMR staff joined the UK Energy Research Centre’s UKERC Annual Assembly for 2008, held atParkstead House,in a leafy London suburb near Richmond Park. The excellent catering, 100% vegetarian, was very well received by everyone and organisation by UKERC’s meeting place staff was faultless. Over three days the whole spectrum of UKERC activity was presented to the participants and to PhD students attending the UKERC Summer School. The Assembly featured contributions from the Energy Systems Modelling Team at 4CMR, the International Energy Agency (introducing ‘Energy Technology Perspectives 2008’) and other UKERC partners. From grid balancing with microgeneration to demand reduction it was a unique opportunity for us to be brought up-to-date by the leaders in the fields covered by the Centre.The future of the UKERC is to continue with the newly developed UKERC II programme.
Seminar: Policies for Reducing Personal Carbon
16 May 2008
4CMR hosted a half-day seminar called "Policies for Reducing Personal Carbon". The speakers and panelists included Terry Barker (Slides), Phillip Sargent (Slides) of the Cambridge Energy Forum, Richard Starkey (Slides) of the Tyndall Centre, University of Manchester Adrian Wrigley (Slides) Independent Policy Analyst and Doug Crawford-Brown (Slides) of the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. After a presentation that showed the large cost of implementing a personal trading scheme, it was argued that there was good news in relation to fiscal reform, the cost of action on this is nil or negative. The presentations were followed by a stimulating discussion. Further information.
First virtual global conference on climate change
30 April 2008
The first global, purely virtual climate conference, "Klima 2008 / Climate 2008", will take place from the 3 to 7 November 2008. It will take place entirely on the internet and will address a wide audience. The objectives of the conference are to develop synergies, to share scientific knowledge and to promote cooperation among scientific institutions. Further information
"Open Letter" to the IPCC and the World Business Council for Sustainable Development (WBCSD)
22 April 2008
The First International Scientific and Business Congress on Protecting the Climate held in Frankfurt on April 22 2008 and was chaired by Terry Barker, Director of 4CMR and Chairman of Cambridge Econometrics, has released the Open Letter instigated by the Congress. The letter calls for the establishment of a World Carbon Authority to oversee and manage a cap-and-trade scheme for international transport. Detailed proposals for the scheme are being developed and discussed.
Symposium on the Science of Carbon Trading at the Royal Society of Chemistry
12 March 2008
Terry Barker was the Distinguished Guest Lecturer at a Symposium on the Science of Carbon Trading at the Royal Society of Chemistry. More details.
Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change Seminar
12 November 2007
4CMR´s Monday seminar on Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change was given by Dr Rachel Warren, University of East Anglia
International Energy Workshop, Stanford University
25 June 2007
Terry Barker participated in the International Energy Workshop, held at Stanford University, California, June 25-27 2007, sponsored by the International Energy Agency, Paris, Resources for the Future, Washington DC and the Energy Modeling Forum.
He was invited by the conference organisers to present, at a Plenary Session, the findings from the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, 2007, Working Group 3 "Mitigation". His presentation was on "Global and Sectoral Mitigation Potentials, Technology, and the Costs of Climate Stabilization". The presentation is available here.
The workshop is one of the major ways in which the results of current international research are diffused and discussed, and Terry was able to discuss the contributions of the Tyndall research to the debate on the effects of induced technological change as described in the IPCC report. Here is the overhead showing the results from the 4CMR model (E3MG) in context.
Joint Committee of the House of Lords and House of Commons
13 June 2007
Terry Barker appeared before the Joint Committee of the House of Lords and House of Commons on Wednesday 13 June to give evidence on behalf of the Royal Society. The Joint Committee is considering the draft Climate Change Bill, which has been under consultation with the closing date 12 June 2007. He was questioned in particular about the role of the proposed independent Climate Change Committee in advising the Government on the sectoral allocation of CO2 targets. Minutes will be available in due course.
IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, 2007: the mitigation challenge
25 May 2007
Dr Terry Barker gave a lecture on the 'IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, 2007: the mitigation challenge' The presentation and reception were held in the Pitt Building, Trumpington Street, Cambridge. Dr Barker had recently returned from Bangkok where he was involved in the Summary for Policy Makers for Working Group III. Dr Barker was the coordinating lead author of Chapter 11 'Mitigation from a cross-sectoral perspective'.
The presentation is available here.
Competitiveness and Environmental Tax Reform Conference
21 March 2007
Terry Barker made a Keynote Speech at the Conference on "Competitiveness and Environmental Tax Reform" in Brussels, on "Avoiding dangerous climate change through environmental tax reform".
Further information
Tyndall Centre's day conference
19 February 2007
4CMR provided support-in-kind for the Tyndall Centre’s one day conference:
Beyond Stern: Financing international investment in low carbon technologies and projects.
Speakers Included: Dr Robert Watson, Chief Scientist, World Bank; Catrinus Jepna, Professor of Environmental Economics, Univ. Groningen; Terry Barker, Director, Cambridge Centre for Climate Change Mitigation Research.
Further details can be found at the following page on the Tyndall Centre website.
Government Scientist opens Climate Change Centre.
30 January 2006
Dr Terry Barker, Director 4CMR - Opening Speech
A University of Cambridge initiative set to be at the leading edge of international environmental research was launched by one of the country’s leading scientists last week.
Sir David King, Chief Scientific Advisor to HM Government, was in Cambridge on Friday for the official opening if the Cambridge Centre for Climate Change Mitigation Research in the University’s Department of Land Economy, or ‘4CMR’ as it will be known.
Climate change is occurring and the causal link to increased greenhouse gas emissions largely caused by the use of fossil fuels is now well established. Carbon dioxide levels are now about 40% higher than at any time in the past 740,000 years at least. The inertia of the global weather system means further warming will occur over the next few decades regardless of action on emissions reduction. As a result, millions of people around the world will increasingly be exposed to hunger, drought, flooding and other serious impacts.
Expert knowledge from a variety of disciplines is essential in addressing the complex issues surrounding Greenhouse Gases. These range from economics, engineering and politics to applied mathematics and computing.
Researchers in the new Centre will focus over the next five years on modelling efforts to reduce the rate of climate-change (mitigation) through technological change. This could be through the use of economic means, such as the EU’s emission trading scheme, applying a multi-disciplinary approach bringing together the work of several departments. The Centre is well connected to inform national and international policy-making.
The Centre will be developing detailed models of energy use and emissions from UK households through home heating and energy appliances, from transportation, and from the electricity industry, working closely with the Policy Studies Institute in London.
The Centre is also developing a state-of-the-art econometric model of the global energy-economy system, based on annual data on 20 world regions 1971-2003 and projecting forward to 2100. The model is one component in the UK Tyndall Centre’s integrated assessment system for assessing climate change, adaptation and mitigation. The first results of the modelling are appearing in the Met Office book on “Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change” just published.
Three long-term research contracts have been secured from UK Research Councils and the European Commission. The Centre will have at least seven researchers and will work closely with other researchers in the University’s Department of Land Economy, Faculty of Economics and Judge Business School, as well as the UK Energy Research Centre, the UK Tyndall Centre and Cambridge Econometrics.
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