ADaptation And Mitigation (ADAM)
Supporting European Climate Policy
Funded by: The European Commission
Duration: 2006-2009
The ADAM work programme is structured around four overarching domains: Scenarios, Policy Appraisal, Mitigation and Adaptation.
4CMR’s contribution to M1 was macro economic modelling, using the E3ME model (an energy-environment-economy model of Europe), including adaptation, ancillary benefits, impact on employment, competitiveness and foreign trade.
4CMR Reports for ADAM M1:
- E. Jochem (leader of Work Package M1); T. Barker and S. Scrieciu (E3ME model); W. Schade, N. Helfrich (ASTRA model); S Mima, P Criqui, J Morel, B Chateau, A Kitous (POLES model); G J Nabuurs, M J Schelhaas, T Groen, L Riffeser, F Reitze, E Jochem, G Catenazzi, M Jakob, B Aebischer, K Kartsoni, W Eichhammer, A Held, M Ragwitz, U Reiter, S Kypreos, H Turton (Bottom-Up Modelling) (2007) “Report of the Base Case Scenario for Europe and full description of the model system”, Deliverable D-M1.1 for the ADAM project; contributed with E3ME modelling results; E. Jochem M1 Work Package leader (Fraunhofer Institute of Systems and Innovation Research)
- Deliverable D-M1.3 for the ADAM project will hopefully be ready by end of June – we will be contributing with E3MG results to account for the economic recession.
4CMR’s contribution to M2 was macro economic modelling including adaptation, impact on employment, competitiveness and foreign trade. As part of the ADAM M2 research programme, a world macro-econometric model E3MG is being developed at 4CMR to investigate mitigation policies for climate change. E3MG was designed and built by Tyndall (Cambridge) in collaboration with Cambridge Econometrics.
4CMR Reports for ADAM M2:
- Knopf, B., Edenhofer, O., Turton, H., Barker, T., Scrieciu, S. Leimbach, M., Baumstark, L. and Kitous, A. (2008) “Report on first assessment of low stabilisation scenarios”. Deliverable (D-M2.6) for the ADAM project, Adaptation and Mitigation Strategies: Supporting European Climate Policy (www.adamproject.eu); contributed with E3MG modelling results
- Deliverable D-M2.4 for the ADAM project (2007) “(Final) Report on model comparison”; contributed with E3MG modelling results; O. Edenhofer M2 Work Package leader (Postdam Institute for Climate Impact Research)
- Deliverable D-M2.2 for the ADAM project (2007) “First Assessment of EU and Global Mitigation Policies”; contributed with E3MG modelling results on “Climate Policy and International Competitiveness of the EU”; O. Edenhofer M2 Work Package leader (Postdam Institute for Climate Impact Research)
- Deliverable D-M2.1 for the ADAM project (2007) “Portfolio of policy and technological options for P3a case study”; contributed with E3MG modelling description; O. Edenhofer M2 Work Package leader (Postdam Institute for Climate Impact Research)
4CMR Reports for ADAM S:
- van Vuuren, D., Criqui, P., Barker, T., Isaac, M., Kitous, A. and Scrieciu, S.S. (2007) “Preliminary ADAM scenarios.” Deliverable D-S.1 for the ADAM project; contributed with E3MG and GVAR results; D. van Vuuren, S Work Package leader (Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency)
United Kingdom Energy Research Centre (UKERC)
The starting-point for the UKERC top-down modelling carried out at 4CMR is the MDM-E3 Model designed to analyse and forecast changes in economic structure, energy systems and associated environmental impacts for use in policy making. To do this, it disaggregates industries, products, and household and government expenditures, as well as foreign trade and investment.
The model is a combination of time-series econometric relationships and cross-section input-output reationships. The projection of fuel use by user and type of fuel is used to calculate emissions of carbon dioxide and other gases and particulates to the atmosphere, allowing for different qualities of fuel and different processes of combustion.
The econometric 'top-down' treatment is supplemented by an engineering 'bottom-up' approach in four important areas: the electricity supply industry (ESI), household energy consumption, the transport sector, and waste.
Integrated Modelling
...Innovating Integrated Assessment Systems
The Tyndall Centre is committed to delivering high impact research, based on quality cutting-edge science, supported by a sustainable inter-disciplinary research culture. The 2nd Phase of the Tyndall Research Strategy (2006-09) was launched on the 4th May 2006, and comprises 7 research programmes designed to carry forward the work from phase 1.
4CMR was the lead partner in research programme 7 - Integrated Assessment Modelling. Dr Terry Barker lead the research programme, which developed and used the Community Integrated Assessment System (CIAS). The system links a climate and closed carbon-cycle model, a global energy-environment-economy model, an impacts tool and a down-scaling module. It is applied to analyse specific scientific and policy issues, including costs of stabilisation of atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, and post-2012 international climate policy options, including analysis of instruments designed to induce and diffuse technological change, allowing for the non-linear dynamic responses of the coupled climate socio-economic system.
Engineering cities
...Innovating Integrated Assessment Systems
Economics modelling
The overall objective was to provide scenarios of economic activity at a city scale. This was modelled by adapting the existing E3MG and MDM global and UK models of economic activity that were developed in part during the first phase of the Tyndall Centre. In keeping with the overall integrated assessment framework, the economics model was driven by global scenarios of climate and socio-economic change. These was disaggregated to obtain measures of economic activity at a city scale but remained in the context of global scenarios of climate and socio-economic change. Of particular interest to urban planners and policy makers was the potential gains or losses from cities or nations using their own powers to explore city-scale mitigation strategies. The different scenarios of economic activity was used to drive the land use model and provided inputs to the emissions accounting models.
Task duration:
01/10/2006 to 30/09/2008
Opportunities for Meeting the Environmental Challenge of Growth in Aviation (Omega)
Increasingly, stakeholders in UK aviation are recognising that severe challenges lie ahead. They are accepting that timely action is necessary and that radical changes may be needed to address them. The project 'Opportunities for Meeting the Environmental Challenge of Growth in Aviation (OMEGA)' will combine academic capability with knowledge exchange between academia, industry and policymakers to assist in developing future strategies for a sustainable UK aviation industry.
4CMR was a partner in the OMEGA project and studied the possible impacts on the aviation industry and general economic activity of including the aviation sector in the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS). The Cambridge Econometrics European model E3ME was developed to incorporate the aviation sector in the EU ETS. Scenarios of emissions permit allocations and business responses to changes in costs from the permit prices were explored, to investigate conditions under which aviation might significantly affect permit prices in the EU ETS and under which aviation sector investment decisions are influenced by the permit price.
