New and Ongoing Research

January 2022–December 2025

Funding Body: National Natural Science Foundation of China

Principal Investigator: Professor Lei Feng (Renmin University of China)

Co-Investigator: Professor Helen X. H. Bao (CRERC)

Budget: RMB 480,000 (approx. £55,600)

This study constructs a dynamic institutional change model from the perspective of micro-motivation and endogenous changes. It examines the path characteristics, determining conditions, and influencing factors of China’s rural land institutional change by using a combination of theoretical modelling, measurement testing, questionnaire survey, simulation, and case analysis methods.

March 2022–February 2025

Funding Body: OeNB Anniversary Fund

Principal Investigator: Dr Sofie R. Waltl (CRERC)

Co-Investigators: Dr Sanela Omerovic and Anja M. Hahn (Vienna University of Economics and Business)

Budget: EUR 248,000 (approx. £205,000)

The LocHouse project proposes a comprehensive framework for monitoring and causally identifying disruptions in the Austrian housing market in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. Therefore, we exploit a comprehensive micro-data source on real estate transactions and rent adverts. These data supplemented by a variety of COVID-19-related measures inform pan-Austrian hierarchical regression models fit for identifying direct and indirect effect over various phases of the COVID-19 pandemic. These models are further made use of to identify segment-specific disruptions and predict effects under future counterfactual housing market scenarios.

January 2024–December 2027

Funding Body: National Natural Science Foundation of China, Sichuan University

Principal Investigator: Dr Qianyu Zhao (Sichuan University, China)

Co-Investigator: Professor Helen X. H. Bao (CRERC)

Budget: CNY 632,000 (approx. £71,200)

The project examines the unresolved challenges of rural homestead land transfer in China’s reform pilot programs. It shifts the research focus from whether transfer is possible to the new issues arising from innovative transfer practices. Using qualitative and quantitative data from pilot areas—such as interviews, surveys, and web-scraped information—the study applies Empirical Mode Decomposition, Kernel Density Analysis, and Social Network Analysis to analyse the temporal, spatial, functional, and network characteristics of land transfers. Additionally, it employs Propensity Score Matching and Difference-in-Differences models to assess their effects on farmers' welfare and village revitalization. The findings will inform policy recommendations to improve governance by formalizing rules in response to emerging challenges.

November 2024–September 2025

Funding Body: Investment Property Forum (IPF)

Project Investigators: Professor Colin Lizieri, Nick Mansley, and Dr Zilong Wang (CRERC)

Conventional financial wisdom suggests that yields (cap rates) should predict ex-post returns. However, empirical evidence reveals inconsistencies in this predictability. Thus, this study focuses on answering the following questions: Why is it so difficult to forecast returns using yields? What is the source of forecast instability? What is driving the difference between in-sample and out-of-sample performance?

November 2024–March 2026

Funding Body: Keynes Fund for Applied Economics, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge

Principal Investigator: Dr Zilong Wang (CRERC)

Co-Investigators: Professor Colin Lizieri and Nick Mansley (CRERC)

This study investigates the drivers of commercial real estate (CRE) price variation. Observed fluctuations in CRE prices should reflect changes in future rents, discount rates, or both. In other words, the willingness to pay for the property depends on investors’ expectations about future rents and discount rates. A central question in asset pricing is determining the relative contribution of each pricing component to the observed variations in property prices. The traditional approach to this problem assumes rational expectations. However, rational expectation is a strong assumption. In this study, we contribute to the literature by examining the role of subjective expectations in explaining CRE price fluctuations.

January 2025–December 2026

Funding Body: The Royal Society

Principal Investigators: Professor Helen X. H. Bao (CRERC) and Professor Haijun Bao (China)

Co-Investigators: Dr Sofie R. Waltl (CRERC) and Dr Lu Han (China)

Budget: £12,000

This project aims to integrate the UK's individual-focused behavioural approaches with China's grassroots institutional strategies to address regional inequality. By combining these models, we anticipate a significant synergistic boost to regional development efforts. The collaboration will involve exchanging insights and methodologies between UK experts in behavioural interventions and Chinese specialists with extensive empirical evidence on urban and rural reforms.

Current Land Economy PhD students undertaking research on themes associated with the Centre include:

Find a full list of CRERC working papers here.